Afternoon market commentary
Fri Oct 16 — S&P 500 −1.1% to 7,659.44, Nasdaq −2.2% as the AI-financing rout deepens: SOXX's ninth straight loss (worst streak in 20 years), CoreWeave −8%+ with its bonds near 16% yield, VIX closes just under 20; energy and defensives lead a second straight rotation day; September industrial production +0.7% (vs +0.4% expected); blackout begins Saturday ahead of the Oct 27–28 FOMC.
October 16, 2026 · Dependability Research Desk
OCT 16
Morning market analysis
Fri Oct 16 — Futures drift near flat after Thursday's defensive rotation (Dow +1.08%, S&P 500 +0.33%) on a second hot inflation print; September industrial production (9:15am ET), regional-bank Q3 prints, and the last Fed-speaking day before Saturday's blackout fill the session; October hike odds ~15% into the Oct 27–28 FOMC.
OCT 15
Afternoon market commentary
Thu Oct 15 — September PPI runs red-hot (1.3% m/m, 6.3% y/y vs 5.3% expected) alongside a 0.8% retail-sales beat, and the tape splits in two: the Dow rallies 1.08% (+556 pts) to 52,177.69 on a hard rotation out of tech, the S&P 500 grinds +0.33% to 7,744.06 as the 10-year drops 10bp to 5.09%, and the Nasdaq claws back to flat; October hike odds ease to ~29%.
OCT 15
Morning market analysis
Thu Oct 15 — September PPI and retail sales land at 8:30am ET with Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.26% after the KOSPI's 7%+ circuit-breaker plunge; the S&P closed Wednesday at 7,718.94 after a 1.11% hot-CPI drop. [Updated 8:44 ET with PPI]
OCT 14
Afternoon market commentary
Wed Oct 14 — Hot September CPI (3.7% y/y, core 2.6% vs 2.5% expected) sinks the S&P 500 −1.08% to 7,721.49 in its worst day since July; Nasdaq −1.85%, small caps lead the downside, and only healthcare, staples, and energy stay green; October hike odds jump to ~37%.
OCT 14
Morning market analysis
Wed Oct 14 — September CPI at 8:30am ET is the week's hinge (headline 3.6% y/y expected, core +0.2% m/m); Dow futures +0.45% while Nasdaq 100 futures sit flat as Bank of America misses and ASML's guidance lift fades. [Updated 8:41am ET with September CPI]
OCT 13
Afternoon market commentary
Tue Oct 13 — Bank-earnings day one: JPMorgan's rare miss and Citi's −5.5% sink financials while chips rout again on China's CXMT breakthrough; S&P 500 −0.01% to 7,805.45, energy leads (XLE +1.8%) with WTI settling at $94.14; September CPI lands Wednesday 8:30am ET, and the desk corrects its calendar — no shutdown, FOMC Oct 27–28.
OCT 13
Morning market analysis
Tue Oct 13 — Big-bank earnings before the bell; Dow futures +0.6% into the reopened bond market while Nasdaq 100 futures sag −0.5% on chip weakness, with September CPI due Wednesday 8:30 ET.
OCT 12
Afternoon market commentary
Mon Oct 12 — Mixed Columbus Day close: Dow +0.36% to 51,843.48 on the energy-and-value bid, S&P 500 −0.06% to 7,806.59, Nasdaq −0.43% on chip weakness; energy's record day carries the tape into Tuesday's bank earnings, with September CPI due Wednesday 8:30am ET. (Dek corrected Oct 13: an earlier version cited Oct 24 on a shutdown premise that does not hold — no shutdown occurred.)
OCT 12
Morning market analysis
Mon Oct 12 — Futures steady to start CPI-and-earnings week after a record-setting week; S&P futures hover near 7,835 with Brent whipsawing above $100 on Gulf attacks and Trump's Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire claim.