Tuesday opens with two competing tapes on Election Day. The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,541.40, down 0.51%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164.32 (with the Nasdaq 100 now roughly 10% below its peak, in technical correction), while the Dow added 0.41% to 51,983.98 and the Russell 2000 eased 0.21% to 2,805.88 — Monday was about technology, not the economy, with chips the epicenter. The VIX settled at 21.17, up 9.01% on the day, and the 10-year yield closed at 4.894%. Overnight the pressure broadened beyond earnings: the US carried out strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a day after Tehran signaled openness to talks, sending Brent back above $100 a barrel. S&P 500 E-mini futures are essentially flat near 7,567 at ~7:55 AM ET while Nasdaq 100 futures hold up ~0.3% even as Apple trades 4% lower premarket — the morning's reaction function belongs to the September JOLTS report at 10:00 AM ET, the first labor data point before Friday's October jobs report and a direct input into December Fed-hike pricing near 74%.

At a Glance

The JOLTS Reaction Function

The following is the desk's framework for reading the session, not a forecast.

• Hot JOLTS (openings ≥ ~7.3 million, materially above consensus): December hike odds re-price toward 85%+, the 10-year pushes back toward 5.00%, the dollar firms, and the tech selling gets a rates excuse layered on top of an earnings problem. Desk judgment: this is the outcome that turns a rotation into a full risk-off day — Apple's margin warning already has growth investors pricing a harsher 2027.
• In-line JOLTS (consensus, ~7.1 million): The macro tape stays on script — December odds hold near 74%, yields and the dollar trade sideways, and the session is decided by earnings and the election-night narrative, not the data. Watch whether Apple's 4% slide stays confined to the mega-caps or bleeds back into the memory and software names that Monday's session left bleeding.
• Cool JOLTS (< ~6.9 million, the labor-cooling tail): December hike odds slip toward a coin flip, the 10-year eases below 4.85%, and the rate-sensitive rotation (small caps, defensive breadth names that held up Monday) gets room to run — it would also be the first data point suggesting September's weak +29,000 payroll print was signal rather than noise. Desk judgment: a soft openings print is the cleanest path to a green close, because it undercuts the only argument for December while the economy's own data (Q3 GDP +3.4%, ISM manufacturing at 55.5) stays firm.

Overnight Headlines

• US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz lift crude back over $100: A US official said the US carried out strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a day after Iran signaled openness to peace talks and President Trump indicated he might hold off on strikes. Brent crude gained ~1.3–1.6% back above $100 a barrel and WTI is near $97.30, rebounding from Monday's ~7.8% collapse to $96.04 that followed day-three of the Doha talks. European gas futures had fallen nearly 11% at one point in the prior session on the talks optimism.
• Apple beats the quarter, misses the guide: Fiscal Q4 revenue rose 12% to $114.48 billion (consensus ~$113.38 billion) with EPS of $2.10 vs $1.99, iPhone revenue up 17% to $57.58 billion, Mac revenue up 24%, and gross margin of 47.9% — but December-quarter gross margin guidance of 45–46% on rising memory costs, Greater China revenue of ~$17.5 billion vs ~$18.5 billion-plus expected, and Services growth slowing to 9.8% with an 8–9% holiday guide sank the shares ~4.2% premarket to ~$322.44, the first earnings call under the new chief executive. Palantir also fell ~3% despite raising its full-year revenue outlook.
• Shopify plunges on a GMV miss: Shopify fell ~16–19% premarket to ~$127 — on pace for its largest daily percentage drop on record — after third-quarter revenue of $3.742 billion (+32%) roughly matched estimates and adjusted EPS of 49 cents beat, but gross merchandise volume of $119.1–119.2 billion (+29–30%) came in below ~$120–121 billion estimates and gross operating profit missed. The December quarter guided revenue growth in the low-30% range, broadly in line with estimates — but not the beat-and-raise the premium multiple demanded.
• Asia and Europe trade the AI reassessment: South Korea's Kospi fell 4%, with SK Hynix down 5.7% and Samsung down about 4%, and Taiwan's Taiex dropped 3.8% as Apple's margin warning hit memory names directly; Japan was closed for Culture Day. Europe's STOXX 600 slipped ~0.4% to ~647 with technology down ~1.6% (ASML, STMicro among the decliners) on AI-trade doubts plus the Hormuz headlines; Bayer gained 4–6% on a raised 2026 outlook and the UK's Drax jumped 9% on a £20-billion-plus data-center partnership.

What to Watch at the Open

1. The JOLTS print at 10:00 AM ET and the December-odds readout. Consensus is ~7.1 million openings against 7.079 million prior. A print at or above ~7.3 million re-prices December toward 85% and puts the 10-year back near 5.00%; a soft print under ~6.9 million is the session's best chance to reverse the overnight futures. This is the macro hinge — everything else is earnings plumbing.
2. Whether Apple's slide stays contained or spreads. Nasdaq 100 futures are up ~0.3% despite Apple down 4% — the chip bounce-back after Monday's washout is doing real work. If the weakness re-broadens into memory (the SK Hynix read) and software (Shopify's record-setting drop), the rotation thesis is in trouble; if the Nasdaq holds its correction line, Monday's bottom-fishing gets a second chance.
3. Crude's round trip and the election-night tape. WTI back near $97 reopens the inflation side of the ledger that the October CPI (Nov 10) will price. Polls close through the evening with control of Congress on the ballot; CNBC reports investors expect little direct market reaction to the vote itself, but the outcome matters for defense spending, drug pricing, and data-center rules — watch healthcare and defense names into the afternoon.
4. AMD after the close. The semiconductor read after Monday's Marvell deal fallout and Intel's weak outlook — memory costs are now the street's obsession (they sank Apple's margin guide), and AMD's demand commentary is the last big AI-capex signal before the macro data takes over Wednesday.

The Structural Read

Election Day sits between two heavier forces: the AI-capex earnings debate that took the Nasdaq 100 to a 10% correction, and the December Fed decision that two jobs reports (Fri Nov 6 and Dec 4), Tuesday's CPI, and Nov 25 PCE will shape. The structural anchors have not moved — Monday's afternoon note held the year-end S&P target at 8,150 (+8.1% from Monday's close), the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% with December the live meeting, and inflation is far below its 2022 highs. Desk judgment: the desk's bias remains toward treating this week's tech weakness as a rotation — capital leaving the AI buildout for energy, cyclicals, and the rate-sensitive names that held up Monday — but a rotation needs the labor data to cooperate. Hot JOLTS fuses the two worries (AI margins and December hikes) into one; in-line or cool JOLTS keeps the tape trading the earnings story, which is the healthier fight.

Bottom line: Election Day opens with S&P futures flat near 7,567 and Nasdaq futures up ~0.3% despite Apple down 4% premarket on its December-margin guide and Shopify down ~16–19% on a GMV miss — while September JOLTS at 10:00 AM ET is the session's macro hinge for December hike odds near 74%, and WTI is back above $97 after US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Watch the JOLTS surprise for rates, the breadth of the tech selling for the rotation thesis, and AMD after the close for the semiconductor read.

Sources: Yahoo Finance (futures levels ~7:55 AM ET; VIX/10Y/WTI/gold/nat gas/DXY/BTC quotes), yesterday's PM brief (Monday adjusted closes: ^GSPC 7,541.40 −0.51%, ^IXIC 25,164.32 −1.07%, ^DJI 51,983.98 +0.41%, ^RUT 2,805.88 −0.21%, ^VIX 21.17 +9.01%, ^TNX 4.894%, CL=F $96.04 −7.76%, GC spot $3,955.50 +1.45%; December hike odds ~74% Kalshi Nov 2), Reuters via syndication (US strikes on Qeshm Island; STOXX 600 −0.4% to 647.13; Brent +1.3% above $100; Apple's margin guide weighing on risk), The Fortune Post/AP (Kospi −4%, SK Hynix −5.7%, Samsung −4%, Taiex −3.8%, Brent $106.58/WTI $97.88; Japan closed for Culture Day), Rivkin Morning Market Wrap (Nasdaq 100 in 10% technical correction), Tradingpedia/Investing.com (Apple $114.48B rev vs $113.38B, EPS $2.10 vs $1.99, 45–46% Dec margin guide, China ~$17.5B, Services +9.8%; −4.24% premarket to ~$322.44), Barron's/Investor's Business Daily (Shopify $3.742B rev +32%, 49c EPS vs 47c, GMV $119.1–119.2B vs ~$120–121B est; −16 to −19% to ~$127), Swingfolio (premarket futures 7:36 AM ET; PLTR −3%), BLS official November release calendar (JOLTS Nov 3 10:00 AM ET; jobs Nov 6 8:30 AM; CPI Nov 10; PPI Nov 13; retail sales Nov 17; FOMC minutes Nov 18; all dates re-verified live this run), TipRanks/Deepscope/XTB (JOLTS consensus ~7.1M vs 7.079M prior; factory orders +1.2% vs +0.1%), YieldDocket/Treasury Fiscal Data (6-week bill auction Tue 11:30 AM ET, $100B), Weekend Spread (earnings calendar: Pfizer/Shopify pre-open; AMD, SMCI, Arista, Amgen, Booking after close; refunding Wed 8:30 AM), Bitfinex macro outlook (FOMC Dec 8–9 with new projections; one jobs report before it). Data is ~15-minute delayed, not tick real-time.

Disclaimer: This research is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.