Monday bought the dip in everything except the one stock under investigation. The S&P 500 jumped 2.41% to 7,554.67 — its best day since April — the Dow rose 2.21% to 52,417.54, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.67% to 25,235.49, with the Nasdaq-100 up 3.54% and small caps up 3.23%, while Nvidia fell 4.27% on the CEO probe and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still rose more than 6% without it. The engine was oil: WTI fell about 4.4% to roughly $86.82 a barrel on hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran conflict, easing inflation pressure and letting the 10-year hold near 4.88% while the VIX collapsed 20.9% to 20.27. This morning the tape is holding its breath — S&P 500 futures are essentially flat near 7,575, Dow futures are up about 0.37% near 52,690, and Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 0.39% near 27,906 as of about 7:15 AM ET — because the day's verdict arrives at 8:30 AM ET in the form of October CPI, and Fed Governor Waller raised the stakes overnight in London: he backs a quarter-point December hike, and said a half-point move should be considered if core CPI prints 0.3% or hotter. Desk judgment: Monday banked the bounce instead of renting it, and the futures' split says the market is not re-litigating Monday — it is waiting on one number, with the second decimal of core CPI deciding whether December is a quarter point, a half point, or a repricing.

8:30 AM Update — October CPI

Added 8:45 AM ET. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month vs. 0.3% expected (September: +0.6%); core CPI rose 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected (September: +0.3%), a third straight month at 0.3% — exactly the level at which Waller said a half-point December hike should be considered. No 12-month rates were published because October 2025 prices were never collected during last year's shutdown. Futures gave back part of Monday's rally as of about 8:35 AM ET — S&P 500 futures 7,544.25 (-0.40%), Nasdaq-100 futures 27,739.50 (-0.98%), Dow futures 52,525 (+0.05%), Russell 2000 futures 2,824.20 (-0.86%) — with the 10-year yield up to 4.905%, gold down 1.48% to $4,053.70, and WTI down 2.26% to $84.89. The hot scenario from the reaction function played out, though the first move was more measured than its full sketch: the 10-year stopped just short of 4.95% and the VIX held near 20.6, below 22 — the half-point is now live in the December debate, and the open will show whether the market prices it or fades it.

At a Glance

The October CPI Reaction Function

The framework's read — scenarios for the 8:30 AM ET print, with consensus at headline +0.3% month over month (after +0.6% in September) and core +0.2% (after +0.3%). The BLS will publish no 12-month changes for October because October 2025 prices were never collected during last year's government shutdown, so the monthly core number carries the whole verdict — and most core forecasts sit between 0.19% and 0.26%, where 0.25% rounds up to 0.3%:

• In-line — core +0.2%. The print matches consensus and the December hike stays a quarter point at roughly 80–85% odds. The S&P holds Monday's 7,554.67 close, the 10-year stays near 4.88–4.90%, and attention rotates to Friday's PPI and Nvidia's earnings on November 17. Desk judgment: this is the path that keeps the desk's SPX targets — 1-month 7,850, 3-month 8,000, year-end 8,150 — HELD into the next data, with the 1-month target back inside its +1σ band after Monday's rally.
• Soft — core +0.1% or lower. Inflation is cooling faster than the hawks feared, and the December hike gets repriced from near-certain toward a coin flip. The 2-year yield falls back under 4.55%, the dollar slips, gold reclaims $4,120, and equities extend Monday's bounce with the Nasdaq leading — the biggest surprise risk of the day, given how firmly Waller just framed the hawkish side. Desk judgment: a soft print is the cleanest path to re-pricing the December hike lower and letting the market's targets do their work, but it would also confirm that the Fed's last hike call is being made on stale momentum rather than live data.
• Hot — core +0.3% or higher. Waller's half-point trigger fires: the 2-year yield jumps toward 4.70%, the dollar firms, the 10-year tests 4.95%, and equities give back a chunk of Monday's 2.4% as the market prices a December move that is bigger than a quarter point — the first 50 bp hike discussion in this cycle. The VIX pushes back above 22 and gold slides under $4,050. Desk judgment: this is the scenario where Monday's bounce is exposed as a relief trade built on an oil slide rather than a rates repricing, and the desk would reassess the December hike and the targets with it — the year-end 8,150 target still sits just above its +1σ band, and a hot print pushes it further away.

Overnight Headlines

• Asia surges, Europe follows, led by chips. Japan's Nikkei closed up 2.9% to 60,459.58, South Korea's Kospi jumped 4.4% to 5,239.13 on Samsung (+4.7%) and SK Hynix (+6.7%), Taiwan's Taiex gained 2.5%, the Hang Seng rose 0.6%, and Australia's ASX added 1.1%, while Europe opened higher with the FTSE up 0.73%, the CAC 40 up 1.20%, and the DAX up 1.14%. Taiwan Semiconductor reported October revenue up 59.7% from a year earlier, and SoftBank — an OpenAI investor — jumped 13.9% ahead of its earnings. China's October exports climbed 35.2% from a year earlier and imports grew 41.6%.
• Waller puts a half-point hike on the table. Speaking in London in the early hours, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support a quarter-point hike in December and that a half-point move should be considered if core inflation comes in at 0.3% or higher on the month. The 2-year yield climbed about 6–7 basis points to near 4.62% on the remarks, and December-hike odds sit near 80–85%. Desk judgment: Waller turned a routine CPI into a referendum on the size of the December move — the consensus core forecast of +0.2% sits just below his trigger, which is exactly why the second decimal matters today.
• Oil slides again, Brent under $90. Brent fell about 2.15% to roughly $90.58 and WTI about 1.9% to roughly $85.12–85.24 in early trading, extending Monday's ~4.4% slide as the president signaled the Iran conflict could end "fairly soon" and diplomacy continues. Brent slipped below $90 a barrel for the first time since August. The slide is the week's biggest disinflationary tailwind — and the reason the desk watches whether crude's fall keeps easing the inflation read rather than just the equity tape.
• Small business optimism holds steady; CoreWeave headlines earnings. The NFIB small business optimism index for October came in at 97.8, against 97.9 the month before and a Wall Street Journal consensus of 98.1, with the uncertainty index falling 6 points to 84, its lowest since last December. After the close, CoreWeave reports its third-quarter results — the week's first hard test of AI infrastructure demand — and Anthropic is expected to formally launch the roadshow for its initial public offering today. In premarket trading, Nvidia is recovering about 1.3–1.8% after Monday's 4.27% drop, CoreWeave is up about 2.4%, and Micron and Marvell are about 1% higher while Intel is down about 0.5%.

What to Watch at the Open

1. The 8:30 AM ET print and the first 15 minutes. Futures are flat into the release by design — the market has priced the consensus, not the outcome. An in-line core (+0.2%) should hold the S&P near Monday's 7,554.67 close; a soft core (+0.1% or lower) puts 7,650 in play by midday; a hot core (+0.3% or higher) puts 7,500 — and the 50-day — back in the conversation before the open.
2. The 2-year yield at 4.62% and the 10-year at 4.89%. Yields are the market's real-time read on Waller's half-point trigger. If the 2-year breaks above 4.65% on a hot print, the December move is being repriced bigger; if it falls back under 4.55% on a soft print, the hike bet is deflating and equities have cover to extend.
3. Nasdaq-100 futures near 27,906 and Nvidia's recovery. The Nasdaq-100 is the only future in the red this morning, and Nvidia is up 1.3–1.8% premarket after touching a seven-month low Monday. If the semis hold Monday's more-than-6% SOX bounce with their biggest name recovering, the probe reads as contained; if the Nasdaq-100 fades under 27,800 with Nvidia giving back its premarket gain, the AI-regulation repricing has a second leg.
4. Oil under $90 and the 1:00 PM ET 10-year auction. Brent below $90 is the disinflation story in one number — a further slide on the API inventories at 4:30 PM ET keeps the inflation narrative friendly into Wednesday. The $42 billion 10-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET is the day's second rates test: a weak auction with a hot CPI would push the 10-year toward 4.95% and pressure the tape into the close.

The Structural Read

Desk judgment: Monday did not change the macro facts — inflation has come down dramatically from the 2022 highs and is low, the labor market is cooling without breaking, and earnings are holding up, with 88% of S&P 500 companies reported and a blended third-quarter growth rate near 31%. What changed is the shape of the December decision: Waller's overnight remarks turned a quarter-point hike from the base case into the floor, with a half-point now the live tail on a hot core print. The desk's SPX targets — 1-month 7,850, 3-month 8,000, year-end 8,150 — are HELD into the CPI test, but the honest read is that a hot print would force a reassessment of both the December hike and the targets, while a soft print would let the 1-month target sit inside its +1σ band and the market earn its way there. The structural anchors that matter are all dated and verified live this run: October CPI today, November 10 at 8:30 AM ET; October PPI Friday, November 13 at 8:30 AM ET; October retail sales Tuesday, November 17 at 8:30 AM ET; October FOMC minutes Wednesday, November 18 at 2:00 PM ET; October PCE and the second Q3 GDP estimate Wednesday, November 25; the November jobs report Friday, December 4; and the December 8–9 FOMC, with the decision Wednesday, December 9 at 2:00 PM ET and updated projections. Wednesday, November 11 is Veterans Day — the bond market is closed and equities trade on thin liquidity. The November CPI lands December 10 — one day after the Fed votes — so today's October CPI is the last inflation read the Fed sees before it decides.

Bottom line: Monday's 2.4% rally banked the bounce and the futures are holding it — but Waller just made today's CPI a referendum on whether December brings a quarter point or a half point, and the second decimal of core inflation decides which. The question at 8:30 AM ET is not whether inflation is hot or cold in the abstract; it is whether core prints 0.2% or 0.3%, and the market has already told you which side it fears by leaving the Nasdaq-100 in the red. The desk holds its targets and watches the 2-year yield — it is the fastest tell on which scenario just played out.

Sources: Monday closes (^GSPC 7,554.67, ^DJI 52,417.54, ^IXIC 25,235.49, ^VIX 20.27) via Reuters as carried by Kitco and the desk's November 9 PM brief; QQQ 679.35 and IWM 282.51 via Finnhub; 10-year yield 4.88% Monday close via Finnhub daily yield series (4.86% Friday); premarket futures (~7:15 AM ET: ES 7,575.25, NQ 27,906.25, Dow 52,690) via CNBC as cited by Simon Hertz; Russell 2000 futures +0.13% via TradingView; yields (2Y 4.618%, 10Y 4.89%) via CNBC; WTI ~$85.12 and Brent ~$90.58 via CNBC/Stocktwits; gold ~$4,080 futures and BTC ~$74,319 via Samuel & Co and Finnhub (Binance); DXY ~101.77 via Samuel & Co; December-hike odds ~80–85% via CME FedWatch as cited by Reuters and TradingView; CPI consensus (headline +0.3%, core +0.2% m/m; no YoY published) via Reuters and Dow Jones surveys as cited by TipRanks, Trading Nerve, and FXStreet; Waller remarks via Reuters, CNBC, and Bloomberg as cited by World Money Roadmap and FXStreet; NFIB 97.8 via Trading Economics and the Wall Street Journal; Asia/Europe levels via the Associated Press, Morningstar, and TradingView; TSMC revenue and China trade data via the Associated Press; CoreWeave earnings and Anthropic IPO roadshow via Reuters and Stocktwits; premarket movers (NVDA, CRWV, MU, MRVL, INTC) via Reuters and TradingView; economic-event dates verified live this run against the BLS November 2026 release calendar (CPI Nov 10, PPI Nov 13), the Census Bureau (retail sales Nov 17), and the Federal Reserve FOMC calendar (minutes Nov 18, decision Dec 9); October CPI actuals (headline +0.4%, core +0.3% m/m) and post-release futures/yields (ES 7,544.25, NQ 27,739.50, 10Y 4.905%, VIX ~20.6) via Yahoo Finance, quotes ~8:32–8:45 AM ET. Figures are pre-market market data, roughly 15-min delayed, not tick real-time. Disclaimer: This research is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.