Tuesday handed back a slice of Monday's rally and rewrote the December debate in the same session. The S&P 500 slipped 0.38% to 7,520.93, the Dow fell 0.30% to 52,231.89, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.74% to 25,065.88 after October CPI came in hot — headline +0.4% and core +0.3% for a third straight month, exactly the level at which the Fed's Waller said a half-point December hike should be considered. The 10-year yield jumped about 12 basis points to roughly 5.00%, topping 5% during the session, the 2-year posted its biggest daily gain since April 2025, and gold fell 2.6% as the dollar firmed — while the VIX, tellingly, faded 2.31% to 19.46 instead of feeding on the selloff. This morning the tape is testing whether the AI trade can stabilize: CoreWeave's third-quarter beat has Nasdaq-100 futures up about 1.8% near 28,355 as of about 6:35 AM ET, S&P 500 futures up about 0.83% near 7,607, and Dow futures up about 0.11% near 52,371 — but there is no bond market to confirm or challenge the move, no economic data to trade on, and a thin Veterans Day tape that can exaggerate either direction. Desk judgment: Tuesday was a repricing, not a rout, and this morning is a referendum on one question — whether the AI trade's two-day slide was a scare or a turn — with CoreWeave's print arguing scare and the frozen 10-year near 5% arguing that the rates verdict is still outstanding.

At a Glance

The CoreWeave Bounce Reaction Function

The framework's read — scenarios for the open, with no data release and no bond market to set the tone. The test is whether the AI trade's two-day slide reverses or resumes, and the tape will answer it in the first hour:

• Bounce holds — the scare reads as contained. CoreWeave holds its premarket gain of roughly 13–17%, Nvidia holds its ~4% bounce above Tuesday's $168.89 close, and the Nasdaq-100 holds above 28,300 through midday. The S&P reclaims Monday's 7,549.94 close and the session becomes a quiet Veterans Day drift higher, with breadth — evenly split at 242 advancers to 242 decliners Tuesday — turning positive. Desk judgment: this is the path that keeps the desk's SPX targets — 1-month 7,850, 3-month 8,000, year-end 8,150 — HELD into Friday's PPI, with the 1-month target sitting inside its +1σ band on a reclaim of 7,550.
• Bounce fades — the relief is rented, not owned. The AI names give back their premarket gains by midday, the Nasdaq-100 slips back under 27,900, and the S&P drifts back toward Tuesday's 7,520.93 close on thin volume. Gold steadies near $4,030 and the dollar holds its gains while equities mark time — a tape that neither confirms the scare nor clears it, and leaves Friday's PPI as the deciding event. Desk judgment: a fade on a day with no data and no bond market would say the market is unwilling to re-underwrite the AI trade on one earnings print, and the desk would read it as neutral-to-cautious rather than bearish — the VIX under 20 argues against panic either way.
• Tech rolls over again — the probe has a second leg. Nvidia breaks back below $165, the Nasdaq-100 falls under 27,700, and the S&P tests 7,500 before the close, with the semiconductor index leading down for a third session. On a thin holiday tape the move would likely overshoot, and the 10-year — frozen near 5% with no cash trading — could not cushion it. Desk judgment: this is the scenario where Tuesday's orderly repricing turns into a genuine de-risking, and the desk would reassess the 1-month target ahead of Friday's PPI rather than waiting for it — the year-end 8,150 target already sits just above its +1σ band, and a second leg down pushes it further away.

Overnight Headlines

• CoreWeave revives the AI trade. CoreWeave reported third-quarter revenue of $3.66 billion against roughly $3.54 billion expected, raised its full-year outlook, and said it expects to turn profitable on an adjusted basis in the first half of 2028 — easing worries about AI infrastructure spending and its debt burden. The stock jumped roughly 13–17% in premarket trading, Nvidia rose about 4% after shedding roughly $480 billion of value over the prior two sessions, and Micron and Marvell each rose about 7% premarket. Anthropic is also expected to formally launch the roadshow for its initial public offering, reportedly targeting a valuation near $1.5 trillion.
• Asia rallies on chips, Europe follows, led by banks. Japan's Nikkei closed up 1.3% to 61,248.52, South Korea's Kospi rose about 2.4–2.6%, Taiwan's Taiex gained about 3.6% on a 3.1% rise in TSMC, and the Shanghai Composite added 0.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.7% and SoftBank fell after reporting a quarterly net loss of about ¥1.1 trillion. Europe opened higher with the DAX up about 0.9% near its record high, the CAC 40 up 0.6%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.7%, banks leading on results. Desk judgment: the overnight tape is voting with the CoreWeave print — chips up everywhere except where the rate-hike overhang bites hardest — and the Hang Seng's decline is the reminder that the December repricing still has a cost.
• The rates overhang has no new witness today. Tuesday's repricing was the week's real event: the 10-year jumped about 12 basis points to roughly 5.00%, the 2-year rose about 19 basis points to roughly 4.74% — its biggest daily gain since April 2025 — and the market now prices a December hike as a certainty, with about an 11.5% chance of a half-point move. With the bond market closed for Veterans Day, that verdict stands untested until Thursday, when the first Fed voice since the jobs report — the New York Fed president — speaks. The Treasury secretary urged the U.S. and China to "de-risk" their economic relationship, a headline the tape took as mildly constructive.
• Oil steadies, gold licks its wounds, bitcoin holds a line. WTI is up about 0.6% premarket near $86.53 after settling at $86.33, and Brent is near $92.20, both supported as hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran conflict fade and U.S.–Iranian officials say talks are stuck. Gold is little changed near $4,030 after Tuesday's 2.6% slide, natural gas is up about 0.7% near $3.31, and bitcoin is near $73,910 after its lowest close since August 20 — still holding above its 200-day average near $73,137.

What to Watch at the Open

1. Nasdaq-100 futures near 28,355 and Nvidia's $168.89 close. The Nasdaq-100 is the whole story this morning: a hold above 28,300 through the first hour says the CoreWeave print re-underwrote the AI trade; a fade under 27,900 says it rented the bounce. Nvidia's premarket gain of about 4% is the single-name tell — if it gives the gain back, the probe story has a second leg.
2. The S&P 500 at 7,550 — Monday's close is the line. The S&P closed Tuesday at 7,520.93, 29 points below Monday's 7,549.94. Reclaiming 7,550 early puts the hot-CPI give-back behind the tape; failing there on a thin holiday session leaves the index pinned between the bounce and the rates repricing until Friday's PPI.
3. Breadth and volume on a thin Veterans Day tape. With the bond market closed and no data due, the session can drift or exaggerate — Tuesday's breadth was perfectly even at 242 advancers to 242 decliners, so the open's advance-decline line is the cleanest read on whether the bounce is broad or just the AI names. A narrow, chip-led rally that fades by midday is the rented-bounce tell.
4. Kenvue before the open; Mosaic, Corteva, and Brighthouse after the close. Kenvue is the morning's only earnings test outside the AI complex, and the after-close trio is the day's second read on the consumer and materials tape. Nvidia's reply to the House committee chairs is also due today, with the requested closed-door briefing proposed for November 18 — any headline there moves the stock faster than earnings elsewhere.

The Structural Read

Desk judgment: Tuesday did not change the macro facts — inflation has come down dramatically from the 2022 highs and is low, the labor market is cooling without breaking, and earnings are holding up — but it changed the shape of the December decision: a hike is now priced as certain, with the only live question its size. The desk's SPX targets — 1-month 7,850, 3-month 8,000, year-end 8,150 — are HELD into Friday's PPI, which is the reassessment trigger the desk set after the hot CPI: if producer prices confirm the hot run-rate, the 1-month target gets revisited before Nvidia reports on Tuesday. The structural anchors that matter are all dated and verified live this run: October PPI Friday, November 13 at 8:30 AM ET; the NY Empire State index Monday, November 16; October retail sales Tuesday, November 17 at 8:30 AM ET, the same day Nvidia reports after the close; October FOMC minutes Wednesday, November 18 at 2:00 PM ET; October PCE and the second Q3 GDP estimate Wednesday, November 25 at 8:30 AM ET; the November jobs report Friday, December 4 at 8:30 AM ET; and the December 8–9 FOMC, with the decision Wednesday, December 9 at 2:00 PM ET and updated projections. The November CPI lands December 10 — one day after the Fed votes — so Friday's PPI is the last inflation read before the market settles the December debate. Wednesday, November 11 is Veterans Day — the bond market is closed and equities trade on thin liquidity, so today's tape may drift rather than decide.

Bottom line: Tuesday's hot CPI repriced December and the 10-year topped 5% — but the VIX faded, breadth was even, and the market gave back less than a sixth of Monday's rally. This morning CoreWeave is handing the AI trade a chance to stabilize, with Nasdaq futures up nearly 2% and Nvidia bouncing 4% premarket. On a thin Veterans Day tape with no bond market and no data, the open will tell you whether the bounce is owned or rented — hold above 28,300 on the Nasdaq-100 and the market earns its way to Friday's PPI; fade it, and the rates verdict does the deciding instead.

Sources: Tuesday closes (^GSPC 7,520.93, ^DJI 52,231.89, ^IXIC 25,065.88, QQQ 674.76, IWM 280.58, ^VIX 19.46) via the desk's November 10 PM brief and Yahoo Finance as carried by The Retest; premarket futures (~6:35 AM ET: ES ~7,607, NQ ~28,355, Dow ~52,371) via Upstox and TradingView; yields (10Y ~5.00%, 2Y ~4.74%, 30Y ~5.36%) via Reuters, TradingView, and Morningstar as cited by the desk's November 10 PM brief; WTI ~$86.53 and Brent ~$92.20 premarket via TradingView; gold spot $4,032.52 Tuesday close via OANDA as cited by Ausecure; BTC ~$73,910 (12:57 UTC) and Tuesday close $73,796 via Finnhub; DXY ~102.3 via TradingView; December-hike odds (100% hike, 86.2% 25 bp, 11.5% 50 bp) via CME FedWatch as cited by Reuters and Benzinga; CoreWeave Q3 revenue $3.66B vs ~$3.54B expected, shares +13–17% premarket, Nvidia +~4% premarket, Micron/Marvell +~7% via Reuters, Benzinga, TradingView, and CoinDesk; Asia/Europe levels via the Associated Press and investingLive as cited by Stockvolt and the morning market brief; natural gas $3.31 (+0.70%) via DataForge; jobless claims prior week 189,000 via Velox Macro; economic-event dates verified live this run against the BLS release schedules (PPI Nov 13, CPI Dec 10, jobs Dec 4), the Census Bureau calendar (retail sales Nov 17), the BEA schedule (PCE/GDP Nov 25), and the Federal Reserve calendar (FOMC minutes Nov 18, decision Dec 9). Figures are pre-market market data, roughly 15-min delayed, not tick real-time. Disclaimer: This research is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.