Fri Oct 2 — Soft payrolls (+29K vs ~84K consensus) buried the October-hike bet; the S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72 and the Nasdaq gained 1.19% near a record, though yields rebounded off the morning lows.

Thu Oct 1 — The bond market flipped: the 10Y fell 5.9bp to 5.233%, its biggest daily drop in over a month, as October-hike odds collapsed below 25%; the S&P 500 added 0.19% to 7,666.45, tech and energy led, and crude spiked on a third U.S. carrier group steaming toward Iran — with September payrolls (84K expected) landing Friday morning.

Wed Sep 30 — Cool PCE (core 3.0% vs 3.3% expected) collapses October-hike odds to 37% as tech leads; the 10Y still closes at 5.292%, a 24-year high, and TLT prints a record-low close to end Q3.

Tue Sep 29 — Soft-data double miss collapses October-hike odds (71%→52%) as the Nasdaq rebounds; the 10Y still settles at 5.26%, a generational high, and crude plunges 3.6% on the Saudi pipeline restart.

Mon Sep 28 — Rejection, not relief, into the close: S&P 500 −0.77% to 7,683.69 as the 10Y settles at 5.241% (19-year high) and gold plunges 4% to $4,111; Brent +0.9% to $105.28 after Trump rejects Iran's proposal.

Fri Sep 25 — Relief into the weekend: S&P 500 +0.51% to 7,743.41 as the 10Y eases to 5.18%, crude slips on Hormuz-deal headlines (WTI $92.35); MSFT +4% leads tech, the Dow snaps its 3-week skid.

Thu Sep 24 — Waiting tape on summit day: S&P 500 −0.02% to 7,704.13 as a tailing 7-year auction (5.085%) pushes the 10Y to 5.162%, its highest since 2007; Brent +4.25% to $103.52; Meta +4.5% offsets a second chip-washout day; Trump–Xi state dinner tonight.

Wed Sep 23 — Rate shock: the 10Y punches through 5.1% on hot PMIs and a weak 5-year auction; S&P −0.75% to 7,706.03, Nasdaq's record streak snapped as chips give back their two-day surge; Trump–Xi summit Thursday.

Tue Sep 22 — Nasdaq's second straight record (+0.45%) as the AI bid leaves the rest of the market behind; S&P 500 flat at 7,764.64, 34 points from its record; WTI −1.2% to $94.59, a fifth straight decline; banks −1.9% on the flattening curve.

Mon Sep 21 — Nasdaq record close (+2.26%) as Iran-UNGA diplomacy hopes collapse the oil war premium; S&P 500 +1.49% to 7,764.70, 34 points from its record; WTI −8.3% to $91.95; 10-year 4.96%.

Fri Sep 18 — S&P 500 +0.2% and Nasdaq +0.4% on a choppy quad-witching Friday; the 10Y settled near 5%, the VIX fell 4.1%, and WTI dropped 1.6% as the BoJ hiked to a 31-year high overnight.

Thu Sep 17 — S&P 500 +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.7% in the post-Fed relief rally; the 10Y fell back under 5% to 4.95% and the VIX collapsed 12.8%; the Bank of Japan decision and quadruple witching arrive Friday.

Wed Sep 16 — Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous vote as the dots pencil in another increase this year; S&P 500 -0.45% to 7,551.81, Dow sheds 631 points (-1.21%), Nasdaq flat; WTI gives back Tuesday's spike, -3.5% to $102.10, on inventory builds; the 10-year finishes near 5.00%.

Tue Sep 15 — S&P 500 -0.5% to 7,585.73 on FOMC-eve oil and yield pressure, WTI +4.4% to $105.83, the 10-year closed 4.99% after touching a 19-year intraday high, hike odds at 95%.

Mon Sep 14 — S&P 500 -0.5% to 7,618.70 as the AI-safety debate hit chips and the 10-year touched 5%; VIX +8.5% to 17.18, WTI settled at $101.39, FOMC decision Wednesday.

S&P 500 closes Friday at 7,656 (+0.86%), snapping a four-day losing streak, as August CPI prints +0.4% MoM with core +0.3%; VIX -11.2% to 15.84.

S&P 500 closes Thursday at 7,591.70 (-0.58%), a fourth straight loss, as WTI tops $100 and the 10Y jumps to 4.95%; VIX closes at 17.84.

Pre-CPI hawkish positioning day — SPX -0.48% to 7,636.36; VIX expands +4.71% to 16.46; oil past $95 area (XLE +0.83%, USO +2.70%); 10Y +3.1 bp to 4.837%. Friday's CPI is the September release.

S&P 500 closes Tuesday at 7,673.52 (-0.58%) as the post-ceasefire oil premium extends past $95; VIX +8.2% to 15.72.

S&P 500 closes Friday at 7,718.60 (-0.38%) as a hot August NFP (+162K) re-prices September hike odds toward 60%; WTI ends the week at $91.48 (+9.7% WTD).

S&P 500 closes Thursday at 7,747.71 (+1.06% on the day; +0.47% WTD) as Initial Claims + JOLTS absorbed as in-line-and-softer against a no-cut-consensus backdrop.

S&P 500 closes Wednesday at 7,666.60 (+0.46% on the day; -0.59% WTD) as the ISM Manufacturing PMI print at 10 AM absorbed as in-line-and-softer; VIX compressed sharply -6.98% to 15.20.

Oil-spillover extension day — SPX -0.71% to 7,631.47 as WTI's geopolitical premium extends aggressively (USO +5.46% to $141.00); VIX +9.52% to 16.34 breaks the cheap-vol floor; 10Y +3.8 bp to 4.796%.

Positioning-confirmation Monday — SPX -0.33% to 7,686.14 as oil's geopolitical rebound (WTI +3.49% to $86.31) re-ignites the inflation-fear premium; 10Y +3.8 bp to 4.758%; XLE +2.04% catches the spillover bid.

Warsh-verdict absorption day — SPX -0.25% to 7,711.76 as the Jackson Hole keynote reads hawkish; 10Y +5 bp to 4.72%, gold sold hard, VIX crushed to 14.43; year-end 8,150 held on the AI capex thesis.

Nvidia follow-through day — SPX +0.72% to 7,730.99; XLK +3.16% as the AI capex thesis re-extends; VIX crushed to 14.51; defensives fully unwind ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote.

PCE-absorption session — SPX flat at 7,675.70; July PCE softer than consensus (core +0.246% MoM) renews cut hopes; Nvidia delivers a structural re-acceleration after the close ($96.2B revenue, +106% Y/Y).

Quiet pre-event risk-on reset — SPX +0.32% to 7,677.28; XLK +0.94% rebounds after Monday's derating; 10Y drops 13.8 bp to 4.639% into Wednesday's PCE; VIX eases to 15.45.