S&P 500 PRICE TARGETS — February 14, 2026. Current: 7,342 SPX. 1-Month: 7,400 (+0.8%) — modest continuation of the February recovery. 3-Month: 7,500 (+2.2%) — Q1 earnings season as the next catalyst. Year-End 2026: 7,600 (+3.5%) — AI capex cycle extending into H2. Bull Case: 7,800 — requires visible AI productivity gains, Fed cuts by June, no geopolitical disruption. Bull case rationale: years ending in '6' averaged +4.6% since 1950; AI capex accelerated post-January DeepSeek reassessment; markets pricing Fed cuts by mid-2026 on weak January jobs. Risks: hard landing, geopolitical shock, or 10-year above 5% pushing base case to 6,800–7,000.