S&P 500 PRICE TARGETS — May 22, 2026. Current: 7,473 SPX (up 0.9% for the week, eighth straight winning week). 1-Month: 7,600 (+1.7%). 3-Month: 7,700 (+3.0%). Year-End 2026 Base Case: 7,700 (+3.0%). Bull Case (Stretch): 8,000 — requires AI productivity breakout, earlier Fed cuts, no geopolitical disruption. The desk's read: earnings broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven (Ross Stores, Workday, Zoom beat); Fed on hold with 1–2 cuts priced by year-end; 10-year at 4.6%+ is a watch item below the 5% risk threshold. Risks: hard landing (6,800–7,000), geopolitical oil shock (6,500–7,000), or valuation contraction on 10-year above 5%.