S&P 500 PRICE TARGETS — May 26, 2026. Current: 7,508 SPX (eighth straight winning week). 1-Month: 7,600 (+1.2%). 3-Month: 7,750 (+3.2%). Year-End 2026 Base Case: 7,800 (+3.9%). Bull Case (Stretch): 8,200 — requires AI productivity breakout, earlier Fed cuts, oil below $80, industrial capex traction. The desk's read: earnings broadening in progress (financials inflecting, healthcare margins improving); Fed on hold with 1–2 cuts priced; 10-year at 4.5–4.7% is contained below the 5% risk threshold. Sector focus: industrials and materials on infrastructure capex; energy tactical on Iran. Risks: hard landing (6,800–7,000), geopolitical oil shock (6,500–7,000), valuation contraction on 10-year above 5%.