As of Tuesday, August 18, 2026 (4:00 PM ET close), the S&P 500 closed at 7,691.76 — down -1.21% from Friday August 14's 7,785.76 close and down -0.69% on the week-to-date versus Monday's 7,745.06. The VIX bounced to 15.84 (+11.16% from Friday; +4.28% from Monday) but stayed in steep contango (9d/30d slope -14.20%) — protection remains cheap. Oil extended a third session higher (USO +3.21% from Friday to 130.66); gold gave back (GLD -1.71% to 398.55); the 10Y eased -1.8 bp to 4.706%. The catalyst: the US-Iran 60-day ceasefire expired overnight, putting a geopolitical risk premium back into oil and bonds. Tech led the selloff (XLK -2.47% WTD); defensives (XLV +1.60%, XLP +1.06%) and Treasuries (TLT +0.38%) caught safety bids. The 1-month 7,800 target is +1.41% above; 3-month 7,900 is +2.71% above; year-end 8,000 is +4.01% above. Next: FOMC minutes (Wed Aug 19), Jackson Hole (Aug 27-29), September 15-16 FOMC.