Wed Sep 16 — Fed decision at 2:00pm ET (SEP, dot plot, Warsh at 2:30) with ~93% odds of a quarter-point hike; futures pointing higher after two down days (S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.6%) as WTI slides 2%+ to ~$103.50 and the 10Y eases to 4.97%. August retail sales ran hot at +1.2% vs +0.8% expected. We think hike odds are overestimated — the chance of a continued pause is higher than futures admit. [Updated 9:10am ET]