Opened a QQQ long call condor (Dec 18 '26, 700/715/845/860), pairing a near-ATM bull call credit spread (700/715) with a deep-OTM bear call credit spread (845/860) to express range-bounded sideways drift. Opened July 23, 2026, 11:40 AM ET at $6.895 debit ($689.50 total; 1 long call condor). Defined-risk range play; max profit $810.50 in the $715–$845 zone, max loss $689.50 (= debit). Lower breakeven $706.90, upper breakeven $853.10. Got 1 contract at the recorded basis (within $0.05/share across all four strikes). Slippage: zero.
Why This Structure
The long call condor expresses the most precise neutral view available on QQQ: two defined-risk verticals, one near-ATM bull call credit spread (700/715) and one deep-OTM bear call credit spread (845/860), fused into a single 4-leg structure.
Why this instead of a single vertical? A bull call spread at 700/715 would cost $7.92 debit for a max profit of $7.08 — a 1:0.89 risk:reward capped at $715. The condor adds the upper body (sell 845C / buy 860C) for a net credit that drops the debit to $6.895 while widening the profit zone from $15 to $130 wide. The trade-off: accepting the possibility of a blowout move above $860 or below $700 in exchange for a larger, more likely profit zone.
Why a condor instead of a short iron condor (short strangle)? The short strangle collects more premium but exposes the trade to unlimited risk on a gap — and QQQ's earnings-season gap risk is real. The long condor pays $689.50 to define the risk and still captures a 1:1.18 reward:risk on the same view.
Why these specific strikes? The 700/715 lower body sits just above spot ($690.00) — the lower short strike is 3.6% OTM, capturing the premium of a likely-OTM call over Q3 earnings. The 845/860 upper body sits 22.5% above spot — far enough OTM that the short body captures genuine time premium. The 130-point gap between the bodies is the profit zone the trade harvests.
Thesis
- Rangebound drift through Q4: QQQ has consolidated after the June run. Spot $690.00 sits just below the 700 lower wing. The structure profits if QQQ drifts sideways or grinds higher without a breakout — the highest-probability path into year-end.
- Selling the IV skew: IV-by-strike falls from 28.3% at the 700C to 22.4% at the 860C — a steep skew that prices near-term uncertainty richly. The condor sells the body's rich premium (short 715C at 27.3% IV, short 845C at 22.6% IV) while buying cheaper wing protection.
- Wide body, narrow wings: The 130-point body gap is the widest profit corridor of the day's structures, but the 15-point wings cap the max profit at $810.50. This is a "be right about the range, not the wings" trade — the body gap does the work.
- Companion context: This is the second of a condor pair on QQQ opened the same day — the wide-body variant (this trade, 11:40 AM ET) alongside the narrow-body Nov 20 '26 715/725/810/820 condor (12:03 PM ET). The two express the same range view at different durations and widths.
Risk
| Risk | Magnitude | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| QQQ closes below $700 at expiry | Full $689.50 loss | Stop at $685 close; the long 700C loses intrinsic |
| QQQ closes between $700–$706.90 | Partial loss, scale $0–$689.50 | Hold; the 700C still has time value only if ITM |
| QQQ closes between $706.90–$715 | Partial profit, scale $0–$810.50 | Hold for max profit at expiry |
| QQQ closes between $715–$845 | $810.50 max profit (capped by 15-pt wings) | Take 50% at ~$405 close once profit crosses 50% |
| QQQ closes between $845–$853.10 | Partial profit, scale $0–$810.50 | Hold; the upper body still has time premium |
| QQQ closes above $860 at expiry | Full $689.50 loss (capped by long 860C wing) | Stop at $865 close |
| Earnings gap risk | QQQ gaps ±5% on mega-cap earnings; a gap above $860 or below $700 realizes the max loss | Defined risk caps the damage at $689.50 regardless of gap size |
Position Payoff at Three Time Horizons
The chart shows the P/L curve at three time horizons. The condor's value decays toward the expiry payoff as time passes: the 130-point profit zone sharpens and the wings' time premium bleeds out. At expiry the trade pays $810.50 anywhere between $715 and $845, loses the full $689.50 below $700 or above $860, and scales linearly between the wings and the bodies.
Key levels on the chart:
- Spot $690.00 — current underlying price, below the lower wing.
- Lower long strike $700.00 — the floor; below this the structure is worthless at expiry.
- Lower short strike $715.00 — lower profit boundary.
- Upper short strike $845.00 — upper profit boundary.
- Upper long strike $860.00 — the ceiling; above this the structure caps at the net debit loss.
- Lower breakeven $706.90 — $700 + $6.90 net debit.
- Upper breakeven $853.10 — $860 − $6.90 net debit.
- Max profit $810.50 — between $715 and $845 at expiry, limited by the 15-point wings (not the 130-point body gap).
- Max loss $689.50 — below $700 or above $860 at expiry.
Trade Details
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Instrument | QQQ options (Dec 18 2026 standard monthly) |
| Underlying | QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust, Nasdaq-100 ETF) |
| Structure | Long Call Condor — 4 legs |
| Strikes | Long 700C / Short 715C / Short 845C / Long 860C |
| Leg 1 | BTO +1× QQQ 700C Dec 18, 2026 at $45.93 (IV 28.3%) |
| Leg 2 | STO −1× QQQ 715C Dec 18, 2026 at $38.01 (IV 27.3%) |
| Leg 3 | STO −1× QQQ 845C Dec 18, 2026 at $4.005 (IV 22.6%) |
| Leg 4 | BTO +1× QQQ 860C Dec 18, 2026 at $2.98 (IV 22.4%) |
| Width | $15.00 lower body + $15.00 upper body (130-pt body gap) |
| Expiration | 2026-12-18 (148 DTE at entry) |
| Settlement | AM-settled (standard monthly; last trade day Thursday 12/17) |
| Net debit at fill | $6.895/share = $689.50/contract (OptionStrat basis) |
| Contracts | 1 long call condor |
| Total debit | $689.50 (1 × $689.50) |
| Max profit | $810.50 at expiration (lower width $15 − net debit $6.895 = $8.105/share × 100) |
| Max loss | $689.50 (= net debit, defined risk) |
| Lower breakeven | $706.90 (lower long strike $700 + net debit $6.895) |
| Upper breakeven | $853.10 (upper long strike $860 − net debit $6.895) |
| Reward:risk | 1:1.18 ($689.50 risk to $810.50 reward) |
| IV at entry | IV-by-strike 28.3/27.3/22.6/22.4% |
| Entry time | Jul 23 2026, 11:40 AM ET |
| Management rule | 50% of max profit (~$405 to close) OR close at 30 DTE |
| Stop loss | 2× debit ($1,379/contract cost to close) OR QQQ closes below $685 or above $865 |
Greeks Snapshot (Black-Scholes)
| Greek | Per-contract value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Delta (Δ) | +0.00 est. | Near-zero net delta at entry; the 4 legs roughly cancel — a delta-neutral structure. |
| Gamma (Γ) | Mild short | Body short gamma dominates wing long gamma; the position loses on large moves either way. |
| Theta (Θ) | Net positive | Long-dated body shorts decay faster than the wing longs; time works for the trade. |
| Vega (ν) | Mild long | Wings are far enough OTM that an IV expansion benefits the structure. |
Numbers per-contract = per-share × 100.
Verification (anti-pattern #80: basis vs live)
Live verification against the chain: OptionStrat bases vs live mids at entry:
| Metric | OptionStrat basis | Live-mid estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Net debit | $6.895/share | $6.935/share (~$693.50/contract) |
| Max profit | $810.50 | $805.60 |
| Max loss | $689.50 | $693.50 |
The bases were within $0.05/share across all four strikes — effectively a zero-slippage fill. The source records the OptionStrat-basis hero numbers ($810.50 / $689.50); the live-mid cross-check confirms them within $5/contract.
How the Trade Has Moved Against the Underlying
The source includes a companion spot-vs-strategy-premium simulation chart (not migrated; only the P/L curve was in scope). Its key reading: the condor's premium tracks QQQ's drift — the structure gains value as spot grinds toward the $715–$845 profit zone and loses value on sharp moves in either direction. The 130-point body gap gives the simulation its wide flat top; the 15-point wings keep the profit capped.
Intraday Setup (entry)
- Pre-market context: QQQ consolidating after the June run; spot $690.00 at entry. The Dec 18 '26 chain showed the standard IV skew — higher IV near the money, falling off with distance.
- Entry signal: Spot just below the lower wing ($700) with the lower short strike ($715) 3.6% OTM. The structure nets to near-zero delta, expressing a range view into year-end.
- Execution: Opened July 23, 2026, 11:40 AM ET at $6.895 debit. Got 1 contract at the recorded basis (within $0.05/share across all four strikes). Slippage: zero.
- Position size check: $689.50 max loss = 0.230% of $300k book. Below the per-trade cap.
Management Plan
- Open through Q3 2026: Hold. The condor has net positive theta and a 130-point profit zone. Take 50% of max profit (~$405/contract) if the trade crosses the halfway mark.
- 30-DTE hard close: Close or roll by mid-November regardless of P&L. Never let a 4-leg condor go inside 30 DTE.
- Stop loss: 2× debit ($1,379/contract cost to close) OR QQQ closes below $685 or above $865. Note: a $1,379 close-out would exceed a single trade's risk budget — sizing and the stop are separate decisions at the entity level.
Position Update Log
| Date | QQQ Price | Position Value | P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 (entry) | $690.00 | $689.50 | — | Opened. 1 long call condor @ $6.895 debit. Zero slippage. |
Outcome
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Realized P&L | Open trade — to be filled at expiration or earlier management action |
| Holding time | 148 DTE target (Jul 23 2026 → Dec 18 2026) |
| Hit target? | Open — take 50% if profit ≥ ~$405/contract. |
Lessons
(To be filled in as the trade progresses through Q3/Q4 2026.)
Cross-references
- The strategy page for this structure (referenced in the source as a strategy entry) covers the long call condor mechanics in the abstract.
- The playbook (2026-07-05 SOP) governs position sizing, the 30-DTE hard close rule, and the 50%-of-max-profit take-profit rule used here.
- The companion narrow-body QQQ condor (Nov 20 '26, 715/725/810/820) in this journal expresses the same range view at a shorter duration and narrower width.
Disclosure
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