Thu Oct 1 — ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 opens Q4 as the 10Y hits a 24-year high; futures firm, oil back over $100, Nike reports after the close

Thu Oct 1 — The bond market flipped: the 10Y fell 5.9bp to 5.233%, its biggest daily drop in over a month, as October-hike odds collapsed below 25%; the S&P 500 added 0.19% to 7,666.45, tech and energy led, and crude spiked on a third U.S. carrier group steaming toward Iran — with September payrolls (84K expected) landing Friday morning.

Wed Sep 30 — August PCE hits at 8:30 as Q3 closes at 4:00; futures flat-to-soft, the 10Y pins 5.24%, oil re-bids after the sanctions-relief denial [Updated 8:45 ET with GDP, PCE, ADP]

Wed Sep 30 — Cool PCE (core 3.0% vs 3.3% expected) collapses October-hike odds to 37% as tech leads; the 10Y still closes at 5.292%, a 24-year high, and TLT prints a record-low close to end Q3.

Tue Sep 29 — Futures flat-to-firm after Monday's 0.8% S&P drop; the 10Y holds a 19-year high of 5.24%, crude sits near $106, and the tape's next read is the JOLTS–consumer-confidence double at 10:00 ET — six Fed speakers on deck, August core PCE due Wednesday.

Tue Sep 29 — Soft-data double miss collapses October-hike odds (71%→52%) as the Nasdaq rebounds; the 10Y still settles at 5.26%, a generational high, and crude plunges 3.6% on the Saudi pipeline restart.

Mon Sep 28 — Rejection, not relief: Trump rejects Iran's weekend proposal, ES −0.5% and NQ −0.8% premarket as WTI jumps 4% to ~$96 and the 10Y hits 5.23% (highest since 2007); Dallas Fed 10:30, Bowman 8:15, T-bill auctions 11:30; payrolls Friday.

Mon Sep 28 — Rejection, not relief, into the close: S&P 500 −0.77% to 7,683.69 as the 10Y settles at 5.241% (19-year high) and gold plunges 4% to $4,111; Brent +0.9% to $105.28 after Trump rejects Iran's proposal.

Fri Sep 25 — Post-summit relief: ES +0.3%, NQ +0.6% as the tariff truce runs to Jan 10 and Brent eases to ~$106; durable goods (8:30, consensus −0.3%), Michigan sentiment (10:00, 47.5), Costco flat after the Q4 beat.

Fri Sep 25 — Relief into the weekend: S&P 500 +0.51% to 7,743.41 as the 10Y eases to 5.18%, crude slips on Hormuz-deal headlines (WTI $92.35); MSFT +4% leads tech, the Dow snaps its 3-week skid.

Thu Sep 24 — Summit day: ES −0.5%, NQ −1.0% as the 10Y holds above 5.1% and Brent above $100; Trump and Xi meet in Washington; jobless claims (8:30), new home sales (10:00), Costco after the bell.

Thu Sep 24 — Waiting tape on summit day: S&P 500 −0.02% to 7,704.13 as a tailing 7-year auction (5.085%) pushes the 10Y to 5.162%, its highest since 2007; Brent +4.25% to $103.52; Meta +4.5% offsets a second chip-washout day; Trump–Xi state dinner tonight.

Wed Sep 23 — Summit eve: ES −0.1%, NQ −0.3% as Xi arrives in Washington ahead of Thursday's Trump meeting; Brent pinned below $100, Nasdaq record streak intact; PMIs (9:45) and Fed's Barr (10:05) ahead.

Wed Sep 23 — Rate shock: the 10Y punches through 5.1% on hot PMIs and a weak 5-year auction; S&P −0.75% to 7,706.03, Nasdaq's record streak snapped as chips give back their two-day surge; Trump–Xi summit Thursday.