Tue Sep 22 — Fed-speaker day into the open: ES +0.1%, Dow +0.3%; the 10-year eases to ~4.93%, oil rebounds on Iran headlines; Williams (10:05), Jefferson (10:20), Barkin (1:00) — the first post-hike communication.

Tue Sep 22 — Nasdaq's second straight record (+0.45%) as the AI bid leaves the rest of the market behind; S&P 500 flat at 7,764.64, 34 points from its record; WTI −1.2% to $94.59, a fifth straight decline; banks −1.9% on the flattening curve.

Mon Sep 21 — Tech-led rebound into the open: ES +0.7%, NQ +1.1%; the 10-year slips back under 5%, oil eases below $100; light data day — Goolsbee (6:30), Chicago Fed index (8:30), bill auctions (11:30).

Mon Sep 21 — Nasdaq record close (+2.26%) as Iran-UNGA diplomacy hopes collapse the oil war premium; S&P 500 +1.49% to 7,764.70, 34 points from its record; WTI −8.3% to $91.95; 10-year 4.96%.

Fri Sep 18 — Futures climb on falling oil and the post-Fed bid; BoJ hiked to a 31-year high overnight; quad witching, industrial production (9:15), and Bowman (9:30) today.

Fri Sep 18 — S&P 500 +0.2% and Nasdaq +0.4% on a choppy quad-witching Friday; the 10Y settled near 5%, the VIX fell 4.1%, and WTI dropped 1.6% as the BoJ hiked to a 31-year high overnight.

Thu Sep 17 — Futures rebound ~1% after the Fed's first hike since 2023; 10Y back under 5%; 8:30 data (claims, housing starts, Philly Fed) and the BoJ decision Friday are next. [Updated 9:45am ET]

Thu Sep 17 — S&P 500 +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.7% in the post-Fed relief rally; the 10Y fell back under 5% to 4.95% and the VIX collapsed 12.8%; the Bank of Japan decision and quadruple witching arrive Friday.

Wed Sep 16 — Fed decision at 2:00pm ET (SEP, dot plot, Warsh at 2:30) with ~93% odds of a quarter-point hike; futures pointing higher after two down days (S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.6%) as WTI slides 2%+ to ~$103.50 and the 10Y eases to 4.97%. August retail sales ran hot at +1.2% vs +0.8% expected. We think hike odds are overestimated — the chance of a continued pause is higher than futures admit. [Updated 9:10am ET]

Wed Sep 16 — Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous vote as the dots pencil in another increase this year; S&P 500 -0.45% to 7,551.81, Dow sheds 631 points (-1.21%), Nasdaq flat; WTI gives back Tuesday's spike, -3.5% to $102.10, on inventory builds; the 10-year finishes near 5.00%.

Tue Sep 15 — FOMC day one with a 92%-priced hike, the 10Y back above 5% (highest since 2007), Brent near $108 on the Saudi pipeline shutdown, and mixed China data overnight.

Tue Sep 15 — S&P 500 -0.5% to 7,585.73 on FOMC-eve oil and yield pressure, WTI +4.4% to $105.83, the 10-year closed 4.99% after touching a 19-year intraday high, hike odds at 95%.

Mon Sep 14 — the AI-caution trade hammers chips (Nasdaq futures −1.8%), crude surges past $107 on the Saudi pipeline shutdown, and Wednesday's FOMC is ~90%-priced for a 25bp hike.

Mon Sep 14 — S&P 500 -0.5% to 7,618.70 as the AI-safety debate hit chips and the 10-year touched 5%; VIX +8.5% to 17.18, WTI settled at $101.39, FOMC decision Wednesday.